The average home in the Greater Toronto Area sold for $784,118 in 2018. It peaked at $1,193,766 in 2022 and has fallen every year since, to $1,025,266 in the first nine months of 2026. Over the same period, governments added foreign buyer taxes and bans, Toronto added new property taxes, and the Bank of Canada took rates from 0.25% to 5% and back down. The record shows which of those moved prices, and the forecasts suggest a flat market ahead.
What happened: 2018 to 2026
Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data show two clear phases.
The run-up (2018–2022). Prices rose from $784,118 in 2018 to $812,989 in 2019, then jumped 13.9% to $926,340 in 2020 and 18.5% to $1,098,088 in 2021. They peaked at $1,193,766 in 2022, up 52% from 2018. Sales hit 127,312 in 2021, up 54% from 2018.
The decline (2022–2026). The average fell to $1,131,219 in 2023, $1,120,241 in 2024 and $1,067,715 in 2025. The January–September 2026 average of $1,025,266 is 14.1% below the peak. Sales fell harder: 62,311 in 2025, roughly half the 2021 total.
September 2026 showed no turn. TRREB reported 5,040 sales, down 9% from a year earlier, and an average price of $1,006,409, down 5.1%. The MLS® Home Price Index composite was down 4.7%, and new listings fell 14.4%. TRREB’s chief information officer said the board sees “substantial pent-up demand in the GTA.”
- Mar 2020: Bank of Canada cuts its policy rate to 0.25%.
- Mar–Oct 2022: rate hikes begin; Ontario’s NRST rises to 20% province-wide, then 25%.
- Jan 2023: federal ban on non-Canadian buyers takes effect.
- Jan 2024: Toronto adds luxury land transfer tax rates over $3M; vacant home tax rises to 3%.
- Dec 2024: insured mortgage cap rises to $1.5M; 30-year amortizations for first-time buyers and new builds.
- May 2025: GST relief of up to $50,000 for first-time buyers of new homes.
View the data
| Year | Average price | Sales |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $784,118 | 82,626 |
| 2019 | $812,989 | 94,044 |
| 2020 | $926,340 | 101,096 |
| 2021 | $1,098,088 | 127,312 |
| 2022 | $1,193,766 | 79,588 |
| 2023 | $1,131,219 | 69,888 |
| 2024 | $1,120,241 | 70,274 |
| 2025 | $1,067,715 | 62,311 |
| 2026 (Jan–Sep) | $1,025,266 | 47,115 |
How policy has affected prices
Ontario’s Non-Resident Speculation Tax (NRST). Ontario brought in a 15% tax on foreign buyers in the Greater Golden Horseshoe in April 2017 as part of its Fair Housing Plan. The GTA average fell 4.8% the following year, from $823,422 in 2017 to $784,118 in 2018. But the tax didn’t stop prices rising 40% between 2018 and 2021. The province raised the rate to 20% province-wide on March 30, 2022, and to 25% on October 25, 2022. NRST revenue from Toronto fell from $91.5 million in 2022 to $22.4 million in 2025. The province cautions that revenue isn’t a reliable measure of foreign buying, because some purchases are exempt.
The federal ban on non-Canadian buyers. Ottawa banned most non-Canadians from buying residential property starting January 1, 2023, and in February 2024 extended the ban to January 1, 2027. Royal LePage said in 2024 that it had had “virtually no impact” on prices. The ban is set to expire in about two months. As of July, Canadian Mortgage Professional reported that the government was signalling it had no plan to simply extend it again, and no replacement has been announced. If it lapses, Ontario’s 25% NRST still applies, so we expect little effect on GTA prices either way.
Toronto’s property taxes. From January 1, 2024, Toronto added higher municipal land transfer tax rates on homes over $3 million, from 3.5% up to 7.5% over $20 million. It also tripled its vacant home tax from 1% to 3% of assessed value for the 2024 tax year. These affect a narrow slice of the market, mainly the high end. TRREB’s CEO has called for the city to reduce its land transfer tax to lower barriers to homeownership.
Interest rates: the biggest factor. The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate to 0.25% in March 2020, and the run-up followed. It began raising rates in March 2022 and reached 5% by July 2023, and prices have fallen since the 2022 peak. The bank then cut to 2.25% by October 2025 and held there through September 2026, yet prices kept falling. CREA’s latest forecast points to higher fixed mortgage rates as the main drag in 2026. Desjardins expects two near-term rate hikes.
Federal help for buyers. On December 15, 2024, Ottawa raised the insured mortgage cap from $1 million to $1.5 million and extended 30-year amortizations to all first-time buyers and buyers of new builds. From May 27, 2025, first-time buyers of new homes can get up to $50,000 in GST relief, in full up to $1 million and phasing out at $1.5 million. These measures make individual purchases more affordable, but so far they haven’t reversed the decline.
Our read: the foreign buyer measures made headlines, but the price record follows interest rates much more closely. Owners should watch the rate path and mortgage costs, not the foreign buyer debate.
The forecast for 2027 and 2028
None of the latest forecasts calls for a quick rebound:
- CREA (October 16, 2026) expects Ontario’s average price to fall 3% in 2026. For 2027 it expects price gains below 2% in every province except Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan, which puts Ontario under 2%. It sees national prices up 1.2%.
- TD Economics (September 29, 2026) expects Ontario prices to stabilize in 2027 with gains under 1%, held back by weak population growth.
- Desjardins (October 21, 2026) forecasts a 2.4% rise in Ontario’s average price in 2027, with sales up nearly 5%.
- CMHC (outlook based on data to January 15, 2026) projected the GTA’s average price would keep falling in 2026, then resume growing in 2027 and 2028 as fewer new condos are completed.
None of these forecasters has published a specific 2028 price figure for the GTA. The GTA average would need to rise about 16% to get back to its 2022 level. At 1% to 2.4% a year, that takes roughly six to 15 years. A flat-to-slow market through 2028 is the planning assumption we’d use.
What it means for owners
Residential land and density values stay under pressure. Lower resale prices weaken presales, and that flows into what residential and mixed-use sites are worth. Base pro formas on today’s prices, not on a return to the 2022 peak.
Rates are the variable to plan around. The record shows prices tracking borrowing costs much more closely than tax policy. The same rates drive owners’ financing, carrying costs on delayed projects and hurdle rates. A capital plan that assumes lower rates in 2027 needs that risk in its contingency.
Lower prices don’t mean lower construction costs. As our look at September housing starts showed, a soft residential market frees up some structural trades for a while. A recovery in 2027 could quickly pull them back into residential work.
Policy changes are a minor factor for most owners. The foreign buyer ban’s expiry and Toronto’s luxury taxes each touch a narrow slice of the residential market. Watch them, but don’t build your plan around them.
What to do now
- Re-base residential and mixed-use pro formas on 2026 prices, with 0% to 2% annual growth through 2028 and a downside case.
- Stress-test financing at today’s rates or higher, not at the lower rates you hope to see.
- Use the soft market to lock early packages such as excavation, shoring and structure, where residential slack may show up in bids.
- Keep escalation allowances in place. Flat home prices don’t cancel out tariff and material cost pressure.
- Track rates, TRREB’s HPI and policy changes each month, including what Ottawa decides about the foreign buyer ban before January 1, 2027.
The bottom line
Since 2018, Toronto home prices have followed interest rates far more closely than any foreign buyer tax or ban. Forecasters now see a slow, low-single-digit recovery at best. Owners who plan for a flat market, stress-test their financing and use today’s softness to lock early packages will be better positioned than those waiting for 2022 to come back.
Want an independent read on what this market means for your capital plan? Book a 30-minute call with Benjamin R. Consulting.
Sources: TRREB, Historical Market Watch data; TRREB, Market Watch, September 2026; TRREB, September 2026 release (October 6, 2026); Government of Ontario, Non-Resident Speculation Tax; Government of Ontario, NRST collected; PwC, Ontario NRST recent changes (November 8, 2022); UrbanToronto, Ontario’s Fair Housing Plan (April 2017); CMHC, Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act; Canadian Mortgage Professional, Canada’s foreign buyer ban is expiring (July 13, 2026); Storeys, Toronto council approves new MLTT rates (September 7, 2023); Global News, Toronto hikes vacant home tax (October 12, 2023); Bank of Canada policy rate history (BondStats); Department of Finance Canada, mortgage reforms (September 16, 2024); Department of Finance Canada, GST relief for first-time home buyers (May 2025); CREA, resale forecast (October 16, 2026); TD Economics, provincial outlook (September 29, 2026); The Canadian Press via BNN Bloomberg, Desjardins report (October 21, 2026); CMHC, Housing Market Outlook 2026. This article is general information, not financial, legal or investment advice.