Toronto broke ground on 1,440 new homes in September, down 61% from a year earlier. For commercial and institutional owners, that looks like the start of a buyer’s market for construction. It might be, for some trades and for a short window. It isn’t for most of the packages that drive your budget.
What happened
On October 16, 2026, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released its September housing starts. Nationally, the seasonally adjusted annual rate rose 3% to 248,896 units, up from 242,223 in August. The six-month trend edged up 0.6% to 250,411.
The local numbers are much weaker:
- Toronto CMA: 1,440 actual starts in September, against 3,678 a year earlier (down 61%). Year to date, Toronto is at 17,397 units, down 14%.
- Ontario: centres of 10,000 people or more recorded 4,054 starts, down 46% from 7,465. Year to date they are 5% behind 2025.
- Canada: actual starts in those centres fell 11% to 19,984, and are 4% behind last year’s pace.
Two details deserve more attention than the headline. First, Toronto’s six-month trend barely moved. It slipped 1% to 24,837 units, which CMHC described as flat. Second, the pipeline is filling up rather than emptying. In centres of 50,000 or more, 143,929 homes had permits but had not started, up 1.1% from August, while roughly 371,600 units remained under construction, essentially unchanged. Storeys noted that all seven major centres CMHC tracks are behind their 2025 pace.
CMHC’s deputy chief economist, Aled ab Iorwerth, put the risk plainly: “a key risk for Canada now is not building enough.”
View the data
| Area | September 2026 vs 2025 | Jan–Sep 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto CMA | 1,440 vs 3,678 units (−61%) | 17,397 units (−14%) |
| Ontario | 4,054 vs 7,465 units (−46%) | 43,994 units (−5%) |
| Canada | 19,984 vs 22,375 units (−11%) | 170,964 units (−4%) |
What it means for owners
The slack is real, but it’s narrow. Fewer residential starts mean fewer new mobilizations for excavation, shoring, forming and concrete crews. Those are the same firms that bid commercial and institutional substructure and structure. If you have below-grade or structural packages going out in the next two quarters, you may see more bidders and sharper pricing on those scopes.
Finishing trades are still busy. Around 371,600 units are still under construction nationally. Mechanical, electrical, drywall and glazing contractors are tied to towers that started in earlier years, and that work doesn’t stop because this month’s starts fell. A drop in starts reaches finishing-trade capacity many months later, if at all. Don’t assume your MEP bids loosen because condo starts did.
The approved backlog can come back fast. Nearly 144,000 permitted homes are waiting to start. Those projects have already cleared approvals, so when conditions improve for developers, they can mobilize quickly and pull crews back into residential. Any pricing window you see this winter could close faster than it opened.
One month is not a trend. The 61% drop and the 1% trend decline are both accurate. A single month of actual starts in a high-rise market can swing on whether a few large towers broke ground. On programs we’ve supported, the costly mistake is rarely misreading the market. It’s building a tender strategy or a board forecast on one data point.
What to do now
- Pull forward structural and below-grade packages. If design is far enough along, tender excavation, shoring, foundations and structure this winter while residential-focused crews are looking for work. Ask for firm price validity long enough to cover your award and approvals.
- Test bid coverage before you bank savings. Before tender, call likely bidders and ask about their backlog. Widen invited lists to include residential-heavy subtrades, but prequalify them properly for commercial work: bonding, safety record and comparable references.
- Keep your escalation allowance. One soft residential month doesn’t offset the tariff and material pressures firms are already passing to clients. Leave escalation in your forecast until real bids prove otherwise.
- Track the trend, not the headline. Add CMHC’s six-month trend for Toronto to your monthly market dashboard alongside permit data. The next release is November 17.
- Plan for capacity to tighten again. For packages tendering in mid-2027 or later, assume the approved backlog starts moving and residential demand for trades returns. Build that into your procurement schedule and your risk register.
The bottom line
Toronto’s housing slowdown gives owners a chance at better pricing on early structural work, not a general discount on construction. Owners who move their ready packages now, protect their escalation allowance and watch the trend rather than the headline will get the benefit. Owners who wait for the whole market to soften may find the window has already closed.
Want an independent read on which of your packages could benefit from today’s market? Book a 30-minute call with Benjamin R. Consulting.
Sources: CMHC, Housing starts and construction data for September 2026 (October 16, 2026); Storeys, Canada’s approved-but-unstarted homes climb as starts slide (October 20, 2026). This article is general information, not financial or legal advice.