Statistics Canada says Toronto new condo prices fell another 0.8% in the third quarter, and condo hard costs have slipped back to roughly where they were four years ago. For owners, the GTA condo slump is a chance to buy trade capacity on better terms. It is not a sign that construction inputs are getting cheaper, and it will not last.
What happened
On November 3, Statistics Canada released its New Condominium Apartment Price Index for the third quarter of 2026. The index tracks what developers charge for comparable new units, not resale prices. The nine-city composite slipped 0.6% from the second quarter. Toronto fell 0.8% and Vancouver 1.0%, and because those two cities make up more than 80% of the composite, they drove the national result. Ottawa (+1.6%) and Montréal (+0.7%) rose. In the second quarter, Toronto’s new condo prices were already 5.2% lower than a year earlier.
Statistics Canada’s cost measure tells a different story. Its building construction price index, released October 29, shows residential construction costs up 0.8% in the quarter and 2.7% year over year, and non-residential costs up 1.2% in the quarter and 4.3% year over year. Toronto residential costs rose 0.4%. The agency pointed to materials, fuel, transportation and labour, plus Canada’s retaliatory tariffs of 15% to 50% on U.S. goods, including 50% on certain steel and aluminum products.
View the data
| Measure (Q3 2026, q/q) | Change |
|---|---|
| Toronto new condo prices | −0.8% |
| Toronto residential building construction costs | +0.4% |
| Canada non-residential building construction costs (15 CMAs) | +1.2% |
Urbanation’s third-quarter survey, released October 21, shows what is behind the price index. GTA new condo sales doubled from a year earlier to 760 units, but 85% were units in completed buildings and 45% were bulk purchases by investment groups, at an average of $763 per square foot, about 40% below original prices. Pre-construction sales were just 60 units. Only 381 units started construction in the quarter. Units under construction fell 38% in a year to 35,920, the lowest since early 2012. Urbanation’s Shaun Hildebrand said the recent sales show “buyers will step in at the right price.”
View the data
| Year | Units | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29,077 | Completed |
| 2026 | 20,868 | Scheduled |
| 2027 | 15,825 | Scheduled |
| 2028 | 12,065 | Scheduled |
| 2029 | 4,213 | Scheduled |
One caution on reading that chart: scheduled completions only count projects that have already started. Add up the scheduled completions from the fourth quarter of 2026 onward and you get 35,920 units, exactly the number now under construction. So the low 2028 and 2029 bars are a floor, not a forecast. New projects that break ground in the next year or two could add to them. The question is how many will. Only 2,696 units have started so far in 2026, 82% below the 10-year average, and with pre-construction sales at 60 units in the quarter, few new projects have the presales they usually need to get financed. Until starts recover, the pipeline keeps thinning.
Ten years of GTA condo construction costs per square foot
Altus Group’s annual Canadian Cost Guide is the most widely quoted benchmark for what it costs to build a condo in Toronto. For a typical 13- to 39-storey concrete condo in the GTA, its hard-cost range was $195 to $260 per square foot in the 2016 guide and $205 to $270 in 2017. By the 2022 guide it had reached $285 to $345, and it kept climbing to $295 to $385 in 2025. The 2026 guide brought it back to $280 to $350. Using the midpoint of each range, that is a rise of about 50% from 2016 to the 2025 peak, and about 38% over the full ten years even after this year’s drop.
The other height bands followed the same path. Towers over 60 storeys went from $235 to $315 per square foot in 2016 to $365 to $480 in 2025, and $350 to $480 in 2026. Buildings of 40 to 60 storeys went from $210 to $285 in 2016 to $330 to $410 in 2025, and $320 to $410 in 2026.
View the data
| Height | 2016 | 2017 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up to 12 storeys | $190–$240 | $205–$265 | $275–$355 | $275–$380 | $285–$390 | $290–$390 | $245–$390 |
| 13–39 storeys | $195–$260 | $205–$270 | $285–$345 | $285–$370 | $295–$380 | $295–$385 | $280–$350 |
| 40–60 storeys* | $210–$285 | $220–$295 | $285–$370 | $320–$400 | $340–$425 | $330–$410 | $320–$410 |
| 60+ storeys | $235–$315 | $250–$315 | $320–$420 | $345–$450 | $365–$490 | $365–$480 | $350–$480 |
Altus says the recent drop is concentrated in the trades most tied to condo work. Concrete formwork, earthworks and shoring, finishing trades and windows saw the sharpest decreases. Mechanical and electrical pricing has flattened after several years of increases, and labour costs are largely flat with plenty of workers available. One Altus director said “this is the best time to start new construction projects.”
Three cautions. First, these are hard costs only. They exclude land, soft costs, site work and HST, and the 2025 guide also excluded tariff impacts. Second, we could not verify the 2018 to 2021 editions, so the chart shows a gap rather than guessing, and assumptions shift slightly between editions. Third, Statistics Canada’s index, which follows the cost of building a set of standard buildings, still shows Toronto residential costs rising. Put together, the lower 2026 ranges reflect contractors and trades competing harder for less work, not cheaper materials.
What it means for owners
The discount is in margin, not materials. The savings are real, but they come from competition. Materials, especially tariff-exposed steel and aluminum, are priced in national and global markets that a quiet Toronto condo sector does not move, and non-residential costs are still up 4.3% in a year. If you trimmed your escalation allowance because “the market is soft,” restore the material portion.
Condo trades are looking for work. With GTA condo units under construction down 38% in a year and few new projects starting, forming, concrete, drywall, glazing and mechanical trades that lived on condo work will be chasing institutional, commercial and industrial projects. Expect more bidders and sharper pricing on those packages over the next year or so.
More bidders also means more risk. A subcontractor with a shrinking backlog may bid below cost to keep crews busy. That is good news on tender day and bad news if the firm fails mid-project. In past downturns, owners who chose the lowest number without checking a bidder’s financial strength and backlog often paid for it later in re-procurement and delay.
The rebound could be sharp. When condo demand returns, the industry will have shed capacity, and starts take years to turn into completions. Owners planning 2028–2029 projects should not assume today’s competitive bidding will last.
For developers, the pro forma has to use real prices. When completed units are clearing in bulk at about 40% below original prices and pre-construction sales are near zero, a project budget built on launch-era prices per square foot is out of date. Material costs are still rising, so the gap has to be closed on scope, phasing or timing, not hope.
What to do now
- Tender labour-heavy packages in the next two quarters. Concrete forming, drywall, interiors and similar packages are where condo-market slack is most likely to show up in pricing.
- Widen your bid lists, then prequalify harder. Invite strong residential-focused trades, but check financial statements, current backlog, bonding capacity and references before you award.
- Keep escalation on materials. In bid levelling, separate labour from material pricing, and keep your escalation allowance at least in line with the latest cost index, with specific allowances for steel and aluminum.
- Protect against subcontractor failure. Require performance and payment bonds on critical packages, and verify each month that subcontractors are being paid.
- Developers: re-run the numbers on achieved prices. Update revenue assumptions to current sales evidence and set a clear go or no-go gate before committing to construction.
The bottom line
A weak condo market gives owners some bargaining power, but only with trades, and only for a while. Want a second look at your tender timing and risk before you go to market? Book a 30-minute call.
Sources: Canadian Mortgage Trends, New condo prices fall as Toronto and Vancouver weaken (November 3, 2026), reporting Statistics Canada’s New Condominium Apartment Price Index, Q3 2026; Statistics Canada, Table 18-10-0273-01, New condominium apartment price index (released November 3, 2026); Statistics Canada, The Daily, Building construction price indexes, third quarter 2026 (October 29, 2026); REMI Network, GTHA new condo sales double from a year ago (October 21, 2026), reporting Urbanation’s Q3-2026 Condominium Market Survey; CP24, Bulk new condo purchases boosting sales in GTHA, but the supply pipeline is drying up (October 21, 2026); Connect CRE Canada, New-condo prices fall across most major Canadian markets (Q2 2026 data); Altus Group, Caution in 2026, optimistic for 2027: Cost Guide insights (April 23, 2026); Precedent Developments, 2026 Canadian Construction Costing Guide (February 28, 2026), reproducing Altus Group’s 2026 Canadian Cost Guide; Altus Group, 2025 Canadian Cost Guide; Altus Group, 2024 Canadian Cost Guide; Altus Group, 2023 Canadian Cost Guide; Altus Group, 2017 Canadian Cost Guide; Altus Group, 2016 Canadian Cost Guide; Storeys, Toronto’s construction costs are now comparable to Vancouver’s (February 2, 2022). Cover graphic: Benjamin R. Consulting, using Urbanation data.