Canada’s new F-35 fighter squadron facilities at 4 Wing Cold Lake and 3 Wing Bagotville are now planned for 2031, more than three years behind the original 2028 target, according to the Auditor General. The jets will arrive first, so the program has to bridge the gap with interim facilities while recovering what it can of the permanent schedule. This post looks at why the delay happened, what is at stake, and the levers that can recover or contain it.
For the full background on the program, see our earlier post, Canada’s F-35 infrastructure: the jets are coming, the squadron facilities are three years behind.
Why the squadron facilities are three years behind
The Auditor General’s June 2025 report points to causes that are common on large capital programs, not to a single failure:
- Designing before the requirement was fixed. Design began in 2020 so the facilities could suit any of three contender aircraft. After the F-35 was chosen in December 2022, more detailed requirements arrived and the design had to be substantially modified.
- Low design maturity. In November 2023, design maturity was 10% at Cold Lake and 15% at Bagotville, against the program office’s usual target of 35% at that stage. Both reached 35% only in December 2024 and January 2025.
- Security requirements. The new fighter’s security requirements were the main driver for new facilities, and the designs include significant protection for classified and sensitive information.
- Delivery capacity. Infrastructure spending in 2023–24 was 50% below forecast, and only 14 of 47 permanent positions due by September 2024 had been filled.
- Planning gaps. The report found risk management lacked proactive measures and the project did not have robust contingency plans.
What is at stake
The project estimate rose from $19.0 billion in 2022 to $27.7 billion in 2024, and the infrastructure line nearly doubled, from $1.3 billion to $2.5 billion. At least $5.5 billion more is needed, outside the estimate, to reach full operational capability. Defence Construction Canada reports $525 million in contracts for the two squadron facilities, and in October 2026 National Defence announced nearly $4 billion to support future fighter capabilities at CFB Cold Lake.
View the data
| Category | 2022 ($B) | 2024 ($B) |
|---|---|---|
| Aircraft | 10.0 | 12.2 |
| Contingency | 2.0 | 6.2 |
| Other | 4.0 | 4.3 |
| Infrastructure | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| Weapons | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Total | 19.0 | 27.7 |
The cost of delay isn’t only in the construction budget. The first jet is due in Canada in late 2028, so operations need an interim solution: movable facilities and renovated existing buildings at Cold Lake. At the time of the audit there was no cost estimate for it, and in June 2024 the program office rated interim operations readiness RED.
View the data
| Milestone | Date |
|---|---|
| First jets at Luke AFB, U.S. | mid-2026 |
| First jet in Canada | late 2028 = original facility target |
| Initial capability | 2030 |
| Squadron facilities | 2031, 3+ years late |
| Full capability | 2033 |
What to do to recover
A three-year slip is rarely recovered in full. The realistic goal is to stop further slippage, pull forward what can be pulled forward, and make the interim period work. These are the levers we would focus on, matched to what the Auditor General found:
| What the Auditor General found | Recovery lever | Track monthly |
|---|---|---|
| Design started for 3 contender aircraft; major redesign after the F-35 was chosen | Freeze requirements and treat any new requirement as a formal change with time and cost attached | Design changes after freeze; open change requests |
| Design maturity 10% (Cold Lake) and 15% (Bagotville) in Nov 2023, against a 35% target | Release construction in packages as each design element is ready, instead of waiting for the whole design | Package procurement and award dates against plan |
| Infrastructure spending 50% below forecast in 2023–24 | Re-baseline cash flow to the real design and package schedule, and forecast monthly | Spend vs re-baselined forecast |
| Only 14 of 47 planned positions filled by Sept 2024 | Fill critical roles first; add owner-side project controls capacity where staffing lags | Critical positions filled |
| Interim operations rated RED in June 2024; no cost estimate | Run interim operations as its own project, with a scope, schedule, budget and accountable lead | Interim readiness rating; interim estimate in place |
| Significant protection for classified information in the designs | Put security accreditation, clearances and secure-room long-lead items on the critical path from day one | Clearance and accreditation milestones |
| Integrated master schedule and transition plans incomplete; weak contingency plans | Align the implementation plan with one integrated master schedule and review it at every oversight meeting | Schedule performance at each committee |
- Lock the requirement. The single biggest cause was designing ahead of a fixed requirement. From here, any new requirement should come through formal change control with its time and cost impact shown before approval.
- Release work as design matures. Packaging lets construction start on elements that are ready. The Cold Lake design-builder’s published schedule already runs trade packages in sequence, with procurement through 2026 and 2027. Hold each package to its award date; a late package is the earliest sign of a late building.
- Make interim operations a real project. It needs its own scope, schedule, estimate and accountable lead. It is now on the path to operating the first aircraft in Canada, not a side task.
- Put security on the critical path. Clearances, accreditation and secure-room equipment have long lead times. Schedule them from day one, not at the end of fit-out.
- Close the capacity gap. Where positions remain unfilled, add owner-side project controls support so forecasting, change control and reporting keep pace with the work.
- Manage by leading indicators. National Defence agreed to align its Master Implementation Plan with the Integrated Master Schedule and make schedule performance a standing item at oversight committees. Track design maturity, package awards, spend against forecast, staffing and interim readiness every month, and use a windows analysis approach to see where each month’s slippage comes from.
Lessons for other defence programs
Canada has dozens of major defence infrastructure projects under way, from northern operating bases to naval jetties; our defence projects map tracks 31 of them. The same pattern applies to each: fix the requirement before design runs far, treat security and interim operations as critical-path work, and watch leading indicators rather than waiting for the completion date to move. Our guide to defence capital project scheduling covers the scheduling side in more depth.
Go deeper: the P-8A and MQ-9B facilities at 14 Wing Greenwood, the CJIRU complex at 8 Wing Trenton, the 427 Squadron hangar at Petawawa and NORAD modernization in the North.
FAQ
Why are Canada's F-35 squadron facilities three years behind schedule?
The Auditor General found the design began in 2020 to suit any of three competing aircraft and needed major changes once the F-35 was chosen. Design maturity was 10% at Cold Lake and 15% at Bagotville in November 2023, against a 35% target, and infrastructure spending ran 50% below forecast in 2023-24. The facilities are now planned for 2031, against an original target of 2028.
How much will the F-35 project cost Canada?
The Auditor General reported the project estimate rose from $19.0 billion in 2022 to $27.7 billion in 2024, with infrastructure rising from $1.3 billion to $2.5 billion. At least $5.5 billion more, outside the estimate, is needed to reach full operational capability.
Can a three-year construction delay be recovered?
Rarely in full, but it can be reduced and contained. The main levers are freezing requirements, releasing construction in packages as design matures, treating interim operations as its own project, putting security accreditation on the critical path, and tracking leading indicators every month.
The bottom line
The F-35 squadron facilities show how a capability can end up paced by its buildings. Recovery now depends less on working faster on site and more on discipline: a fixed requirement, packaged delivery, a properly run interim solution and monthly leading indicators. Running a program that is slipping, or about to start? Book a 30-minute call, or try our owner tools.
Sources: Office of the Auditor General of Canada, Report 2: Delivering Canada’s Future Fighter Jet Capability (June 2025) and full report PDF; Auditor General opening statement to the Public Accounts Committee (October 7, 2025); Defence Construction Canada, Future Fighter Capability Project; FFCP Cold Lake project site (tender package schedule); National Defence, investments in Alberta (October 2026). Cover photo: Wolfgang Vrede on Unsplash (Unsplash Licence); a civilian hangar, not a military facility. Recovery recommendations are our analysis of public information; Benjamin R. Consulting is not involved in this project.