Canada’s construction workforce grew by 47,000 people over the past year, to about 1.66 million, while total employment barely moved. If you are waiting for a slower economy to make contractors cheaper and easier to get, the October jobs numbers say: don’t count on it.
What happened
Statistics Canada released its October Labour Force Survey on November 6. The headline was flat: employment was essentially unchanged (−4,700) and the national unemployment rate rose 0.2 points to 6.7%. Over 12 months, total employment grew by just 16,500, or 0.1%.
Construction moved the other way. It added 15,600 jobs in October (+0.9%) after two months of little change, and is up 47,000 (+2.9%) from a year earlier. Among the major industries, only health care and social assistance added more people over the year. Wholesale and retail trade shed 113,100 jobs and manufacturing lost 16,600.
View the data
| Industry | 12-month change (%) | 12-month change (thousands) |
|---|---|---|
| Health care and social assistance | +3.9% | +113.2 |
| Construction | +2.9% | +47.0 |
| Professional, scientific, technical | +1.2% | +24.2 |
| All industries | +0.1% | +16.5 |
| Manufacturing | -0.9% | -16.6 |
| Public administration | -1.8% | -22.4 |
| Wholesale and retail | -3.7% | -113.1 |
Ontario mirrors the national picture. Provincial employment slipped by 8,600 in October and the unemployment rate climbed to 7.3%, yet construction employment rose to 586,800, up 15,800 (+2.8%) over the year, against 0.3% growth in total provincial employment.
Pay is the quieter part of the story. Average hourly wages across all employees rose 2.2% year over year, to $37.89. For the broad trades, transport and equipment operators group, the average reached $34.57, up 2.3% from $33.79. That group is wider than construction alone, but it suggests trade wages are rising with the market, not running away from it.
View the data
| Region | Construction | All industries |
|---|---|---|
| Canada | +2.9% (+47.0k) | +0.1% (+16.5k) |
| Ontario | +2.8% (+15.8k) | +0.3% (+25.4k) |
What it means for owners
A soft economy is not a soft construction labour market. The job losses are in retail, manufacturing and public administration. Laid-off retail staff do not become licensed electricians or pipefitters this year. The trades your project depends on are still being absorbed by work already underway.
The pressure shows up in capacity and schedule, not hourly rates. With trade wages growing at roughly the economy-wide pace, the bigger risk is not a labour rate line in a bid. It is a thinner bench: fewer bidders, stretched superintendents, crews split across too many jobs, and durations that slide. Contractors price that risk into contingency, general conditions and longer schedules, where owners rarely look for it.
More public demand is coming. Budget 2026 roughly doubles federal capital investment over the next five years (see our budget breakdown). That spending lands on the same workforce that is already growing faster than the rest of the economy.
Do not read one month as a trend. Monthly survey data move around, and October followed two quiet months. The 12-month numbers are the signal: construction has outgrown the wider job market in both Canada and Ontario.
What to do now
- Ask bidders for a crew plan, not just a price. Request the named superintendent, key trade partners and a peak manpower curve, then check them against each bidder’s current backlog. Prequalification is the place to do it.
- Resource-load the critical path. A schedule that assumes trades appear on demand is a hope, not a plan. Our schedule review checklist shows what to test.
- Split labour from materials in your escalation allowance. Price labour near the wage trend and carry a separate allowance for availability and productivity risk. See our escalation allowance guide.
- Secure electrical and mechanical trades early on 2027 work. Early contractor involvement lets you lock in the scarce trades before the public pipeline ramps up.
- Put labour indicators on your dashboard. Construction employment and the Ontario unemployment rate each month take five minutes to track and give the board early warning on bid conditions.
The bottom line
The economy is cooling; construction is not. Plan your 2027 tenders for a tight labour market, and you will be pleasantly surprised if it loosens. If you want a second look at your program’s bid strategy and schedule assumptions, book a 30-minute call.
Sources: Statistics Canada, The Daily: Labour Force Survey, October 2026 (November 6, 2026); Table 2: Employment by class of worker and industry, seasonally adjusted; Table 6: Employment by province and industry, seasonally adjusted; Table 11: Average usual hours and wages of employees, unadjusted for seasonality. Cover graphic: Benjamin R. Consulting, using Statistics Canada data.